Britain, birthplace of the Industrial Revolution, once a coal-burning imperial behemoth, wants to become “clean energy superpower’.
At least that is the promise of the next Prime Minister, Keir Starmer. His Labor Party won the general election on Thursday, ending 14 years of Conservative Party rule.
Labor made big campaign promises on the climate. How this is actually done will be felt not only in the everyday lives of people in Britain, but also in the nation’s place in the world.
Britain is one of the biggest climate polluters in history. It’s where the Industrial Revolution began in the 18th century, creating a global economy driven by coal, oil and natural gas and with it, the greenhouse gas emissions that warm the planet. So the speed and scale of Britain’s energy transition is likely to be closely watched by other industrialized countries and emerging economies.
Britain likes to think of itself as a world leader on climate. In 2008, it became the first among major industrialized countries to pass climate change law. Its emissions have dropped dramatically since then. In 2021, its government set a legally binding target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 78% by 2035relative to 1990 levels, in one of the most ambitious climate laws in the world.
Getting there, though, is the hard part. The new government will face a cost-of-living crisis at home, geopolitical turmoil abroad and a series of extreme weather events exacerbated by rising fossil fuel emissions.
Here are three things to watch as the new government gets to work.
What will it take to move away from fossil fuels?
Mr Starmer’s election manifesto promised “zero carbon electricity by 2030”.
Fortunately for him, the country is already on its way there.
It no longer relies on coal to generate most of its electricity. The last coal-fired power plant is due to close in September. Coal has gone from providing 40% of its electricity in 2012 to almost zero today, according to analysis by Carbon Briefan independent climate news site.
The challenge now is to reduce dependence on natural gas. In 2023, it provided just over 30 per cent of Britain’s electricity. The government must reduce this to zero by 2030 or find ways to capture and bury the greenhouse gases produced by gas plants.
Labor leaders also said they would double onshore wind capacity, quadruple offshore wind capacity and triple solar power.
Joss Garman, executive director at the European Climate Foundation, described the promise of zero-carbon electricity as a “stretched goal” that would require changing laws to approve wind and solar projects.
What is the future of North Sea oil?
Oil extraction in the North Sea has steadily decreased over the past 20 years and is expected to continue to decline until mid-century.
However, the issue of North Sea oil and gas licenses is politically charged.
Last year, current Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said Britain should “maximise” North Sea oil and gas. He put a system in place for the issuance of new permitsprompting the resignation of a former energy secretary who said he would cause “future harm”.
Mr Starmer’s party said it would honor existing permits but not issue new ones.
Oil and gas companies already face a 75 percent tax in Britain. The incoming Labor government said it would raise the figure slightly to 78%.
There is another wrinkle, and that is Scotland.
Scottish nationalists have pushed for a greater say in North Sea oil and gas because it is in Scottish waters. The decline in production there is likely to be felt first and most keenly by communities along Scotland’s north-east coast, which depend on the industry for jobs.
Will climate action remain polarizing?
Unlike the United States, there was broad political consensus in Britain about the need to address climate change. In fact, climate action was a conservative love affair.
Former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher sounded the alarm on climate change. Theresa May, also a Conservative prime minister, has led the charge for a net-zero target by 2050, which means Britain must by law remove as much greenhouse gas emissions from the atmosphere as it puts into it by mid-century. In 2021, Boris Johnson’s government pledged to cut emissions by 78 percent by 2035.
Recently, that goal has changed. Mr Sunak saw the green transition as too costly. For example, the 2030 ban on new diesel and diesel cars has been pushed back to 2035.
Mr Starmer is likely to bring back the ban by 2030. He has also promised to double funding for energy efficiency schemes and create a new national energy company which he says will cut energy bills.
At the same time, there is pressure from the far-right Reform UK party, led by Nigel Farage, to drop the net zero target by 2050 completely. Exit polls predict Mr Farage’s party will have a surprisingly large base in Parliament, reflecting the rise of the far right across Europe.
