Supporters of the Fridays for Future climate action movement, including one holding a sign showing Russian President Vladimir Putin, in Berlin, Germany.
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China and Russia are seen as less of a threat to Western populations now than they were a year ago, as public concern turns to non-traditional dangers such as mass immigration and radical Islam, according to a new survey.
Public perception of traditional hard security risks remains higher now than three years ago, but has declined since 2022, the year Russia invaded Ukraine, survey results from the Munich Security Index 2024 showed .
The findings show a disconnect between public sentiment and political policy as world leaders meet later this week at the Munich Security Conference to discuss what organizers called a “downward trend in global politics, characterized by increasing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty.”
High on the agenda will be the ongoing wars between Russia and Ukraine and Israel and Hamas, as well as NATO expansion and the possible return of Donald Trump to the White House.
Public opinion was broadly aligned on medium-term economic and geopolitical risks, however, with a majority of respondents in Western countries believing that China and other powers from the Global South will become stronger over the next decade, while Western powers were more likely to stagnate or decline.
In the poll of 12,000 people in the G7 countries plus Brazil, India, China and South Africa, few Western respondents believed their country would be safer and wealthier in 10 years. Instead, most of those in emerging economies believed they would be better off economically and politically.
Russia and China are in danger of falling
While Russia was ranked as the top threat to G7 countries last year, the majority of those perceived risks have faded since then, according to the study conducted from October to November 2023.
Only citizens from the UK and Japan still see Moscow as a top risk this year, while Germany and Italy recorded a significant easing of concerns. This included waning concerns about the risks of nuclear conflict and disruptions to energy supplies.
China was also seen more favorably this year than last year by five of the G7 countries, with the exception of Canada and Japan. Notably, however, Chinese respondents saw all countries except Russia and Belarus as more threatening now than before. It was also the only country to single out the US as a threat.
However, perceptions of non-traditional risks have increased across countries, with people around the world expressing concerns about environmental threats, the risks of mass migration as a result of war or climate change, and organized crime. Environmental issues rank in the top three concerns in all countries except the US
The perceived threat of radical Islam also showed a marked increase, although the report’s authors noted that sentiment was concentrated mainly in Europe and North America and was likely a consequence of the Israel-Hamas war.
Cybersecurity issues, meanwhile, rank as a top risk in China and the US, as both countries tighten restrictions against each other in the race to technological dominance.
The index was accompanied by a report titled “Lose-Lose?”, which highlighted the continuing shift away from global cooperation and toward trade-based, protectionist policies.
“As more and more states define their success relative to others, a vicious cycle of thinking about gains, losses in prosperity and rising geopolitical tensions threatens to unfold. The resulting lose-lose dynamic is already playing out in many policy areas and engulfing various areas,” the report said.
He added that this year’s election cycle could further exacerbate the risks of “democratic backsliding, growing social polarization and rising right-wing populism”, further damaging international cooperation.
“Populist forces have further reinforced the sentiment that some actors are winning at the expense of others, as an extreme form of liberalism “exacerbates who gains and who loses from economic globalization,” he added.
The report suggests that Trump’s re-election to the US presidency could potentially “mark the end of credible cooperation between democratic states”. Indeed, on Saturday the Republican presidential candidate said he would “encourage” Russia to attack NATO allies if they do not meet their spending commitments.