No one can predict with certainty what we’ll eat and drink in the new year, but plenty are trying.
As my own year-end ritual, I review an avalanche of predictions from major food companies, PR firms, restaurant groups and market researchers. And then I call, I interview the best forecasters in the business.
I don’t care about the next viral blush or what it will replace almond moms and girls’ dinners. Instead, I study small bits of cultural, media, and economic data and watch the trend emerge.
So what’s up for 2024? “I would call it hi-lo,” said Andrew Freeman, its president AF & Co.the San Francisco consulting firm that for 16 years has published a popular food and hospitality trend report in partnership with the brand and marketing agency Carbonate. “There’s this desire for boldness, maximalism and collaboration, but with this sense that whatever I’m spending, I need to feel real value for my money.”
People want high-quality ingredients, but they also want value — especially Generation Z, who are emerging as logical and skeptical cooks and diners who want safe rewards wrapped in adventure.
Luxury will be found less in the cost or rarity of an ingredient, but rather in the quality of a product that makes life easier, more interesting, and more fun.
“A lot of it is, ‘I just want this fantastic experience to take us away from what’s happening in the news,'” said Jennifer Zhou, who leads the flavor and color group in the global food processing industry ADM.
But there has to be a value proposition, he said Sally Lyons Wyatt, who analyzes shopping and consumption trends for market research firm Circana. “There are absolutely levers that people will pull next year to manage the wallet,” he said.
Here’s what to look out for.
Snack Hype
Meals are so 2023. Next year it will be all about snacks. Small, tasty bites are a low-volume way to explore new cuisines. It is a canvas for cultural hybrids like shawarma crunch wraps. And snack partnerships will continue to drop like sneakers. (French’s mustard and Skittles? Milk Bar and Taco Bell?) “Snacks can be the ultimate cool brow,” said Claire Lancaster, who forecasts food and drink trends to predict consumer trends. WGSN.
Hydration never takes a break
The water will be bigger than ever. #WaterTok — basically millions of people watching other people add syrups and powders to giant glasses of water — doesn’t seem to be slowing down. Look for a rise water sommelierthe “premium hydration” category and portable hydration sensors. New ways of using waste to produce water will emerge, such as cocoa water from what is left after harvesting the cocoa bean. Water management will matter more as consumers look for foods and beverages that require less water to grow or produce, such as dry-farmed beans, snacks made with nopales, and beer from companies that use a pond filtration system.
Against the current
“It will be the year of buckwheat,” he said Cathy Strange, Whole Foods Market’s food culture ambassador. During a recent trip to Norway, she had a foie gras terrine with a crispy layer of buckwheat. In New York City, buckwheat stars in hot chocolate and monkfish topping dressed in curry vinaigrette. It is seasoned with chai or vanilla and turned into a drink. For climate and health enthusiasts, buckwheat is an excellent crop and rich in protein and fiber. Of course, fans of soba noodles and blinis are not surprised.
Thought espresso martini were they special? Meal flavored cocktails would like a word. Through the magic of fat washing, cleansing, and infusions, heavy umami drinks that taste like specific dishes will proliferate as our collective palate shifts from ultra-sweet to savory. Already, in New York you can order a cocktail flavored with Waldorf salad Double chicken please in New York or a Caprese martini at Jac’s on Bond. Or would you prefer a Thai beef salad drink from Savory Projectin Hong Kong, or an Everything Everywhere cocktail with smoked salmon gin, vermouth and caper brine accented with an all-spice bagel from Anvil Pub and Grillin Birmingham, Ala.
Concern about what it takes to create food from complex processing methods will explode. “Over-processed” will continue its rise as a toxic food phrase, according to Mintel’s Global Food and Drink Trends 2024 report. Naturally fermented, cold-pressed oils, nut and legume burgers, and good, old-fashioned ingredients like butter and cream will have cachet. Conclusion: Ingredient descriptions will become more transparent and detailed (instead of “spicy citrus,” you might see “pomelo and habanero”) and include more biodiversity in good faith, but not in the precious farm-to-table way. “It doesn’t always have to be so worthy,” Ms Lancaster said.
Complex Heat
The heat will move from the cerebral explosion to a subtle and multi-dimensional, combined with sweet and sour flavors or seduced by the layering of flavors from different peppers from different parts of the world. “It’s not just ghost pepper coming at you,” Mrs. Strange said. “It’s more about complexity and what you can create with it.”
Technology of the Year (Maybe)
AI will be a big part of the conversation, although many in the food industry are NFT-level skepticism about the hype. Some of the changes that AI may bring won’t be obvious to consumers, such as tighter supply chains, reduced food waste in large kitchens, and precision farming techniques. But others may like new ways to save time in the kitchen or make eating out more enjoyable. An AI-based system, for example, allows a waiter to simply chat with a guest and send the order with information about the customer’s preferences to the kitchen with voice AI and an earpiece, he said. Simon de Montfort Walker, executive vice president and general manager of Oracle Food and Beverage & Central Industry Solutions;
Florals
Color expert Pantone named peach fuzz the color of the year, and several food forecasters followed suit and endorsed peach as the flavor of the year. Others say flavors like cherry blossom and violet will dominate. wild flowers will abound. It’s all about lightness, femininity and new metrics that include kindness, altruism and cooperation. Consider its viral appeal hwachaewith fresh fruit, strawberry milk and Sprite over ice.
Dish of the Year: Soup
Soup is the more interesting younger sibling of bone broth and the perfect vehicle for cross-cultural mash-ups such as menudo tonkotsu ramen. It’s also an easy way to dip into the growing popularity of food from Cambodia, Singapore and Indonesia. For cooks, it’s a low-risk, indulgent way to experiment with new flavors and ingredients. The soup uses up vegetables that might otherwise be thrown away. Specialty Food Association trend trackers predict more soup mixes and soup starters on grocery store shelves. And soup is another way to soothe ourselves. “Honestly,” he said Jenny Zegler, Director of Mintel Food and drink, “I wouldn’t be mad if 2024 was the year of soup.”
Other trendlets: Philadelphia as a food city. The continuing reign of pickles. Desserts with sweetened milk and meringue (but not necessarily at the same time). Peanut everywhere, both the color and the nut. Products that embrace menopause and women’s health. Breadfruit. Shrimp toast in new and creative forms. The sour taste of tamarind and calamansi. Chilled red wine.
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