People cast their votes for the German parliamentary elections (Bundestag) at a polling station in Berlin, Germany on September 26, 2021.
Abdulhamid Hosbas | Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
Germans went to the polls in two eastern states on Sunday, with the far-right AfD on course to win state elections for the first time and Chancellor Olaf Solz’s coalition suffering a setback just a year before federal elections.
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) gathers the first vote with 30% in Thuringia and is optimistic about the conservatives in Saxony with 30-32%. A victory would mark the first time a far-right party has won the most seats in a German state parliament since World War II.
The 11-year-old party would be unlikely to be able to form a state government even if she wins, as the polls do not have a majority and other parties refuse to work with her.
But a strong showing for the AfD and another populist party, the fledgling Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), named after its founder, a former communist, would complicate coalition building.
“I just hope we have a coalition that is democratic and not right-wing in the end,” Naila Kiesel said after casting her vote in the Thuringian city of Jena.
Polls close at 6 p.m. (16:00 GMT), when the first exit polls will be published.
Both the AfD and the BSW are anti-immigrant, Eurosceptic, Russia-friendly and are particularly strong in the former communist East, where concerns about the cost of living crisis, the war in Ukraine and immigration run deep.
A deadly one stabbing spree linked to Islamic State 10 days ago in the western German city of Solingen has sparked concerns about immigration in particular and criticism of the government’s handling of the issue.
“Our freedoms are being restricted more and more because people who don’t fit into the country are being allowed in,” Thuringia AfD leader Bjoern Hoecke said at a campaign event in Nordhausen on Thursday.
The former history teacher is a polarizing figure who called Berlin’s memorial to Nazi Germany’s Holocaust of Europe’s Jews a “monument of shame” and was doomed earlier this year for using a Nazi slogan at a party rally.
“Political Earthquake”
All three parties in Soltz’s federal coalition look set to lose votes on Sunday, with the Greens and the liberal Lib Dems likely to struggle to reach the 5% threshold to enter parliament.
Dissatisfaction with the federal government stems in part from the fact that it is an ideologically heterogeneous coalition plagued by infighting. A disaster in the East will only exacerbate these tensions, analysts say.
“The state elections … have the potential to cause an earthquake in Berlin,” Wagenknecht said at a campaign rally in Erfurt, the capital of Thuringia, on Thursday.
Political analysts say Scholz’s coalition is unlikely to break up before the next federal election in September 2025, as neither partner currently expects a good result.
The BSW, which defines itself as socially conservative and economically left, has seen an impressive rise since its creation in January, posing a particular threat to Scholz’s centre-left Social Democrats.
The party is expected to win as much as 12-20% on Sunday, which could make it king in both the states. Her views on foreign policy would make her an unlikely partner for either of the major parties nationally.
The AfD and BSW together are expected to take around 40-50% of the vote in the two states compared to 23-27.5% nationally, revealing the continuing divide between East and West more than 30 years after reunification.
Party loyalty is lower in the East, while affinity for Russia and skepticism about Germany’s democratic structures are greater.
Narrowing economic differences with the West and a recent series of high-profile multibillion-euro investments in areas such as chip manufacturing and electric car industries failed cheer on the locals.
