Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a presidential debate with US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on September 10, 2024.
Saul Loeb | AFP | Getty Images
A double-digit surge in popularity, growing Democratic enthusiasm and an early advantage for representing “change” have clouded the VP Kamala Harris promoted and reorganized the 2024 presidential contest; according to a new NBC News national poll.
With just over six weeks until Election Day, the poll finds Harris with a 5-point lead over former President Donald Trump among registered voters, 49% to 44%. While that result is within the margin of error, it’s a clear shift from the July poll, when Trump led by 2 points before President Joe Biden left.
But the transformation in the presidential contest goes far beyond the horse race. For starters, Harris’ favorability has jumped 16 points since July, the biggest increase for any politician in an NBC News poll since he was president. George W. Bush’s position rose after the September 11 terrorist attacks.
Harris also has the edge over Trump are seen as competent and efficient, as well having the mental and physical health to be president — a reversal from Trump’s lead in those qualities when he faced Biden.
And in a contest between a sitting vice president and a former president, with an electorate that overwhelmingly believes the U.S. is “on the wrong track,” Harris has the upper hand on which candidate best represents change and which candidate can lead the country in the right direction.
“In July, a strong headwind was headed straight for President Biden and obscured a clear path to victory. Today, the winds have shifted in Kamala Harris’ favor,” said Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, the Democratic pollster that conducted it. the research. with Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies.
Still, Trump has significant leads on the economy and inflation, though those leads are smaller than they were when Biden was still in the contest. Two-thirds of voters say their household income falls short of the cost of living, and voters ranked the cost of living as their top concern in the election.
What’s more, the poll shows that some of Trump’s erosion has come from Republicans who aren’t die-hard supporters of the former president — but who could return to his home state, as they did in 2016 and 2020.
“We’ve seen this movie before,” McInturf said. “They might fall out with Trump, and then in the end they come back and vote the way they’re going to vote in a Republican vs. Democrat preference for Congress.”
Total, The 2024 presidential race looks a lot like it did four years ago, both pollsters agree, with the Democratic nominee more popular than the Republican nominee, the electorate still deeply polarized and the final outcome unclear.
“All this movement toward Harris basically puts the race back to where it was in 2020 at the end of the campaign: a very close election,” Horwitt said.
This all-new NBC News poll, conducted Sept. 13-17, comes after two eventful months in American politics, including Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 race on July 21, two party conventions, two vice presidential picks, an attempt assassination of Trump in July and another apparent attempt two months later, and the first (and perhaps only) conversation between Trump and Harris.
In the first NBC News poll since those events, Harris receives support from 49% of registered voters in the head-to-head test Trump, who gets 44%. Another 7% either choose another candidate, are undecided or say they will not vote.
In an expanded poll of third-party candidates, Harris leads Trump by 6 points, 47% to 41% — with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 2%, Jill Stein at 2% and Libertarian Chase Oliver at 1%. (Respondents were only able to choose from the primary third-party candidates to do so appear on the ballot in their states.)
Both ways of testing the match represent A change from the July poll, when Trump narrowly led Biden by 2 points in the poll test and by 3 points in the expanded vote. September results are in the Democratic ticket’s best poll performance since the summer of 2023.
In the current matchup, Harris holds the advantage among black voters (85%-7%), voters aged 18-34 (57%-34%), women (58%-37%), white voters with college degrees (59%-38%) and independents (43%-35%).
All of these advantages are larger for Harris than Biden enjoyed when he was still in the race, except among independents, where Harris’ 8-point advantage is nearly identical to Biden’s in July.
Trump, meanwhile, leads among men (52%-40%), white voters (52%-43%) and white voters without college degrees (61%-33%).
Seventy-one percent of all voters say their minds are made up, while 11% say they might change their vote — a shift from April, when 26% said they could still change their minds.
Harris leads on abortion, fitness and change. Trump leads on the key issues of the border and inflation
The NBC News poll also tests Harris and Trump on 13 different issues and presidential qualities.
Harris’ best scores are protecting immigrant rights (where she has a 28-point lead over Trump), abortion (+21 points), the mental and physical health necessary to be president (+20 points), the right temperament he is president (+16 points) and represents change (+9 points).
By comparison, Trump’s biggest leads are on securing the border (+21), the economy (+9) and tackling the cost of living (+8).
These current Trump advantages, however, are all diminished from when Biden was still in the race. When NBC News asked voters these questions about Trump and Biden in JanuaryTrump led the president by 35 points on securing the border and immigration control and by 22 points on dealing with the economy.
In April, voters gave Trump a 22-point edge over Biden on tackling inflation and the cost of living as well.
A historic jump in Harris’s popularity
Beyond those issues and qualities, what also stands out in the poll is Harris’ increased popularity since her rise to the top of the Democratic ticket.
In July, 32% of registered voters had a favorable view of Harris, compared to 50% who viewed her negatively (-18 net rating) — almost identical to Biden’s rating.
But in this new poll, Harris is now at 48% favorable, 45% unfavorable (+3).
No major party presidential candidate in the 35-year history of the NBC News poll has seen that kind of jump in popularity in an election.
And the only increases larger than Harris’ in consecutive NBC News polls are George W. Bush’s post-9/11 jump (when his approval rating rose nearly 30 points). Then-President George H. W. Bush’s popularity surge after the first Gulf War (when his approval rating increased by 24 points). and independent Ross Perot, who posted a 23-point jump when he reentered the 1992 presidential race after previously dropping out.
In contrast, Trump’s net rating in the new poll is essentially unchanged from July — 40% favorable, 53% unfavorable (-13).
Warning signs for Harris
Despite the improvement for Harris, the poll contains warning signs for Democrats. First, inflation and the cost of living remain voters’ top issue. And 66% of voters say their family income falls short of the cost of living.
Moreover, while Harris is leading Trump to “change,” a separate question shows a potential vulnerability in the connection to the Biden presidency: 40% of voters say they are more concerned that Harris will continue the same approach as Biden.
That compares with 39% who are more concerned that Trump will continue the same approach as in his first term as president. 18% say neither is a concern.
Meanwhile, 65% of voters say the country is on the wrong track, compared to just 28% who say it is headed in the right direction. While the rate of misalignment is lower than it was during most of the Biden-Harris administration, the poor outlook closely mirrors how voters saw things when they decided to switch parties in the White House in 2016 and 2020.
And while the share of Democrats expressing high interest in the election — scoring either a “9” or “10” on a 10-point scale — has increased since July, new voters remain at a low level of interest compared to recent presidential elections .
Other poll findings
In the recent debate between Harris and Trump, 29% said the Sept. 10 showdown made them more likely to support Harris, compared to 12% who said it made them more likely to support Trump. 57% said it made no difference.
In the battle for control of Congress, 48% of registered voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, compared to 46% who want Republicans in charge. (That’s essentially unchanged from July, when it was 47% Democrats, 46% Republicans.)
And up Project 2025 — the conservative policy plan with ties to former Trump administration officials that Democrats have touted in their campaign — a whopping 57% of voters have an unfavorable view of it, compared to just 4% who view it favorably.
The NBC News national poll was conducted Sept. 13-17 of 1,000 registered voters — 870 of whom came via cellphone — and has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
