A citizen is seen in front of posters of candidates for the 14th presidential election on the streets ahead of early presidential elections in Tehran, Iran on June 27, 2024.
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Iran will hold a second round of presidential elections on July 5 after none of the leading candidates secured more than 50 percent of the vote in Friday’s polls, the interior ministry said on Saturday.
The vote to replace Ebrahim Raisi after his death in a helicopter crash resulted in a tight race between the sole moderate in a field of four candidates and the hard-line protégé of the supreme leader.
With more than 24 million votes counted, moderate lawmaker Masoud Pezeskian led by more than 10 million votes ahead of hardline diplomat Saeed Jalili with more than 9.4 million votes, according to provisional results released by the ministry.
Power in Iran ultimately rests with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, so the result will not herald any major policy change in Iran’s nuclear program or its support for militia groups across the Middle East.
But the president runs the government day-to-day and can influence the tone of Iran’s politics.
Iran’s Tasnim news agency reported earlier on Saturday that the second round of elections is “very likely” to choose the next president.
If no candidate wins at least 50% plus one vote of all ballots, including blank votes, a runoff is held between the top two candidates on the first Friday after the result is announced.
The election coincides with escalating regional tensions over the war between Israel and its Iranian allies Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as mounting Western pressure on Iran over its rapidly expanding nuclear program.
While the election is unlikely to bring about a major change in the Islamic Republic’s policies, its outcome could affect the succession of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s 85-year-old supreme leader, in power since 1989.
The clerical establishment sought high turnout to offset a crisis of legitimacy fueled by public discontent over economic hardship and the curtailment of political and social freedom.
The next president is not expected to usher in any major policy changes to Iran’s nuclear program or support for militia groups across the Middle East, with Khamenei calling the shots on top state issues.
Supporters of Saeed Jalili, a candidate for the June 28 presidential election, shout slogans at his campaign meeting in Tehran, Iran, Monday, June 24, 2024. Jalili is among six candidates approved for the June 28 election to to replace President Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash.
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However, the president runs the government day-to-day and can influence the tone of Iran’s foreign and domestic policy.
Pezeshkian’s views offer a contrast to those of Jalili, who advocates rapprochement with the West, economic reform, social liberalization and political pluralism.
A victory for Jalili, a staunch anti-Westerner, would signal the possibility of an even more competitive turn in the Islamic Republic’s foreign and domestic policies, analysts said.
Limited choices
The election was a showdown between a tightly controlled group of three hard-line candidates and a low-profile moderate loyalist to the supreme leader. A hard-line watchdog approved only six from an initial pool of 80, and two hard-line candidates subsequently withdrew.
“Based on unconfirmed reports, the election is very likely to go to a second round… Jalili and Pezeskian will compete in a second round,” Tasnim reported.
Critics of the clerical establishment say low turnout in recent years shows the system’s legitimacy has eroded. Turnout was 48% in the 2021 presidential election and a record low of 41% of citizens voted in parliamentary elections in March.
All candidates have vowed to revive an economy plagued by mismanagement, state corruption and sanctions reimposed since 2018 after the US quit the Tehran nuclear deal.
“I think Jalili is the only candidate who raised the issue of justice, fighting corruption and giving value to the poor… More importantly, he does not link Iran’s foreign policy to the nuclear deal,” Farzan said. a 45-year-old artist in the city of Karaj.
Divided voters
Pezeskian, a loyalist of Iran’s theocratic rule, is backed by the reformist faction that has been largely marginalized in Iran in recent years.
“We will respect the hijab law, but there should never be any intrusive or inhumane behavior towards women,” Pezeskian said after casting his vote.
A man gestures as he holds a small campaign flag during a campaign rally of reformist candidate Massoud Pezeshkian at Afrasiabi Stadium in Tehran on June 23, 2024 ahead of Iran’s upcoming presidential election.
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It referred to the death of Mahsa Amini, a young Kurdish woman, in 2022 while in police custody for allegedly violating the mandatory Islamic dress code.
The unrest sparked by Amini’s death became the biggest show of opposition to Iran’s clerical rulers in years.
Pezeskian has sought to rekindle the enthusiasm of reformist voters who have largely stayed away from the polls over the past four years as a largely youthful population questions political and social boundaries. He could also benefit from his opponents’ failure to consolidate the hardline vote.
In recent weeks, Iranians have made widespread use of the hashtag #ElectionCircus on X, with some activists at home and abroad calling for a boycott, saying the high turnout will only serve to legitimize the Islamic Republic.
