Labor is seeking to return to power after 14 years

LONDON — The United Kingdom heads to the polls on Thursday as the incumbent Conservative Party seeks to defy months of opinion polls suggesting it will suffer a historic defeat by the center-left Labor Party.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced the vote six weeks ago, surprising politicians and the public alike. Most expected the election to be held later in the year, giving more time for the recent drop in inflation and an expected rate cut to hit voters’ wallets.

A number of smaller parties are vying for seats in the 650-member House of Commons, the UK’s lower house, including the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, the Scottish National Party, Plaid Cymru, the Democratic Unionist Party and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. Voting will take place across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Within the UK political system, a party increasing its share of the popular vote does not necessarily mean that it will win more parliamentary seats – and it is guaranteed that either the Conservatives or Labour, led by Keir Starmer, will take the reins power. This could be done either by obtaining an absolute majority or by forming a coalition government.

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Political investigations have for almost two years marked a resounding victory for Labour, although the party will require a historic gain of almost 13% in the national vote to win even a narrow parliamentary majority, according to Hannah Bunting, a lecturer in quantitative British politics at the University of Exeter. That would be a bigger swing than Labour’s Tony Blair achieved against John Major in 1997.

A strong Labor lead has been strengthened in a major poll released by YouGov earlier this week.

However, politicos and Labor itself warn that no result is guaranteed and that the poll may be inaccurate. More than 100 seats are considered very close, including those currently held by key Conservatives, including Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt and Mr Sunack himself.

Thursday’s polls are the first UK general election since 2019, when then-Conservative leader Boris Johnson won the party’s biggest majority since 1987 over Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour. This was on a platform promising to complete the ‘Brexit’ process of exiting the European Union, which had been mired in political deadlock.

Johnson’s administration was subsequently marred by several public scandals, including the ‘Partygate’ affair, in which senior politicians flouted lockdown rules during the Covid-19 pandemic, leading to his reluctant resignation in July 2022.

He was succeeded by Liz Truss, who lasted just 44 days in office before resigning over the so-called mini-budget crisis, which rocked financial markets.

Sunak, a former Conservative Party finance minister, has since overseen a period of relative political stability. but one in which the country was facing a severe cost-of-living crisis and sluggish economic growth.

The legacy of 14 years of Conservative rule – with the party gaining power through a coalition deal under David Cameron in 2010 – was a key issue in the election campaign.

Sunak and Starmer have tried to convince the public that their party can tackle critical issues on housing, the NHS and defence.

Sunak claimed during a debate in early June that Labour’s policies would lead to a tax increase of 2,000 pounds ($2,553.73) for “every working family” during the next parliament. Mr Starmer said the figure was “made up”, while the party has predicted tax increases that target only certain groups.

The public has from 7am to 10pm local time to vote for their local MP candidate, shortly after which a closely watched exit poll will be released.

Ballots will be counted overnight, with the result expected on Friday morning.