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Shares of Modern closed more than 13% higher on Tuesday after Oppenheimer upgraded the stock to “outperform,” saying Manufacturer of Covid vaccines it could market five products by 2026.
The upgrade follows a dismal 2023 for Moderna, whose only commercially available product is the Covid shot. The company’s stock has long been linked to its vaccine, and its shares fell nearly 45% last year as demand for Covid products plummeted worldwide.
Oppenheimer analyst Hartaj Singh said the company’s Covid sales could hit a low point in 2024 due to factors such as vaccine fatigue. However, the company expects sales of Covid vaccines to increase in 2025 and beyond as Covid education and disease awareness spending increases.
Singh was even more bullish on the potential of Moderna’s pipeline, pointing to a handful of potential product launches in the next 12 to 18 months that could boost sales in 2025.
That includes a possible approval this year for Moderna’s experimental vaccine aimed at protecting the elderly from respiratory syncytial virus, which usually causes mild cold symptoms but more severe cases in the elderly and children.
The company said the Food and Drug Administration will make a decision on the RSV vaccine in April.
Moderna’s experimental flu vaccine could also receive approval in 2024 or 2025, Singh said. In September, the company said its vaccine produced a stronger immune response against four strains of the virus than a flu shot currently available in a late-stage trial.
Singh also said Moderna could apply for FDA approval for the experimental personalized cancer vaccine in 2024 or 2025. The company can apply under the FDA fast track approvalwhich allows fast-track approval of drugs that treat serious conditions and meet what the agency calls “unmet medical need” based on a specific clinical trial metric.
Moderna and its partner Merck they are currently studying the plan in combination with Merck’s blockbuster Keytruda to treat patients with a deadly skin cancer called melanoma and other cancers.
Also on Tuesday, Moderna reiterated in a shareholder letter that it expects to see sales growth in 2025. The company highlighted the RSV vaccine and possible approval for the combination vaccine targeting Covid and influenza, which could come “as early as 2025”.
Moderna in its third-quarter earnings release in November said it expects revenue to fall to $4 billion in 2024 before growing again in 2025. The company expects to break even in 2026. The company also said in November that it would hit the lower end of its sales forecast of $6 billion to $8 billion for 2023, reflecting weaker demand for Covid vaccines.
Moderna also said it plans to launch as many as 15 products over the next five years — a goal it initially outlined at its annual research and development day in September.
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Correction: Moderna shares are down nearly 45% in the past year. An earlier version misstated the percentage.