September is usually a tough month for Apple — and it’s a toss-up as to whether this year could be any different. Apple is expected to announce new iPhone and Apple Watch models on September 9 during a press event at its headquarters in Cupertino, California. The tech giant usually reveals these new models at its fall presentations ahead of the holiday shopping season. Apple’s share price is trending higher as investor excitement builds ahead of its product announcements, according to a FactSet analysis. But the lowest average stock returns occur during the launch month. Apple shares have averaged a 3.5% loss in September over the past 10 years. That decline comes after an average gain of 6.5 percent in July and 4.8 percent in August, the analysis shows. Apple gained 3.1% in August and has jumped nearly 19% this year. Morgan Stanley analysts believe Apple’s announcement this year could lead to better stock performance than history suggests. That’s partly because the upcoming event — which will likely focus on an expected integration of Apple Intelligence into the iPhone 16 model — could fuel demand for the company’s much-anticipated AI-related developments. “Historically, the iPhone launch event has been a news-selling event, with Apple slightly underperforming the market on iPhone launch day and then modestly outperforming the market in the 3 months following the event,” wrote analyst Erik Woodring. in a Thursday note. “We don’t necessarily expect the market to behave differently when Apple unveils the iPhone 16 on September 9, but we do see the potential for Apple to outperform historical seasonality at the end of the year, such as the iPhone 16 launch and Apple Intelligence . it helps unlock pent-up demand,” he added. Woodring said Apple shares have historically performed better when the company’s product replacement cycles are shortened. Indeed, it predicts a contraction in iPhone replacement cycles through fiscal 2026. Apple remains Morgan Stanley’s top pick, and Woodring said he remains bullish on the tech company’s chance to renew a multi-year product cycle and accelerate cycles iPhone replacement. He has an Overweight rating on the stock with a $273 price target, indicating a potential 19.2% upside from Friday’s close. UBS analyst David Vogt, on the other hand, has a neutral rating on the stock with a $190 price target, indicating the shares could decline 17% in the coming year. He said in a note on Tuesday that the month of August is typically characterized by lower consumer purchases of iPhone models, adding that “there is risk to the September launch.” Apple’s iPhones accounted for about 46% of the company’s total sales in the fiscal third quarter. “If Aug iPhone units come in around 14M, down ~3% [month-over-month]based on recent seasonality, absent channel fill, sales through September 24 would need to reach 22.6 million to hit our estimate, ~20% YoY, a high bar in our view given that Apple Intelligence is in beta and not available in Europe,” the analyst said.
