Tesla displays Optimus next to two of its vehicles at the World Robot Congress in Beijing on August 22, 2024.
CNBC | Evelyn
BEIJING — While Chinese companies last week showed off human-like robots playing tick or grabbing soft drinks, Tesla he showed his humanoid Optimus inside a clear box, stationary next to his cars.
Elon Musk claimed Optimus can fold clothesand one day cooking, cleaning or teaching children — the technology he’s touting could give Tesla a $25 trillion valuation. Musk says Tesla plans to test humanoids in its factories next year. It is unclear how well they can perform at this time.
Meanwhile, the World Robot Conference that began Wednesday in Beijing reported a record 27 humanoid debuts at the event. Similar to the country’s rush into electric cars a few years ago, money and resources are now flowing into the development of human-like robots.
Total investment in China’s robotics industry in the past decade has exceeded 100 billion yuan ($14.01 billion), said Wei Cao, a partner at Lanchi Ventures. He said the company has assets under management of about 15 billion to 20 billion yuan.
Cao told CNBC that he expects the next milestone for humanoid development to happen in the next two years: a commercially viable use case in manufacturing where robots can move and know how to prioritize a series of tasks.
That’s more complicated than repeating a single task, like grabbing a water bottle, which robots can already do, Cao pointed out. He noted how artificial intelligence, including models from OpenAI and Alibabahas greatly improved the way robots can be successful in processing information to perform tasks.
Lanchi Ventures is an investor in Shanghai-based Agibot, a humanoid startup founded in February 2023 by a one time Huawei recruitment. A few days before the World Robot Congress, the startup unveiled five new robots, some available for pre-order with a 5,000 yuan deposit.
Agibot aims to start some deliveries in mid-October, followed by a batch 300 robots start in November. His advertisement for the available human-like robots showed that they could act as salespeople, gallery guides or factory parts pickers. Some were exhibited at the conference.
Also in attendance was Stardust Intelligence’s Astribot S1 humanoid robot, which in late April was featured in a promotional video folding a shirt and pouring wine. Some of the robots on display at the conference performed intricate Chinese martial arts moves, played goku, and wrote Chinese brush calligraphy.
Shenzhen-based Stardust was founded in December 2022 by a former member Tencent and Baidu’s robotics projects. The startup says it uses artificial intelligence to support robots’ imitation learning, where machines can reproduce actions after watching them.
Other human-like robots from lesser-known companies Galbot and Turuiput products in baskets or bring individual soda cans from one shelf to another table.
Some of the action was hard and slow. It is not always clear whether the actions are remotely controlled or done autonomously. Demos don’t reveal everything about a product’s capabilities.
Compared with last year, the number and types of demonstrations at the World Robot Congress increased significantly, Lanchi’s Cao said, noting that many students and young people also participated.
In his estimation, robot technology from Tesla and other American companies is likely one to two years ahead of that in China. But Cao pointed out that China is self-sufficient in more than 95% of the humanoid supply chain.
As for why Tesla didn’t show Optimus in action at the conference, Cao said promotional videos already show it has high potential and he understands if the company didn’t want to invest resources to have an engineer run demos.
Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Jeff Burnstein, president of the American Association for Advanced Automation (A3), spoke at the conference via a taped video and showed some virtual demos of humanoid startups like Agility.
“These are demonstrations, but like others they are now in pilot programs and some companies we think are starting to use them more than a pilot,” he said, noting that the association will have its own humanoid conference in Tennessee in October. 7.
Specialized focus
Instead of reproducing the entirety of a human being at once, humanoid corporations tend to focus on specific parts before moving on to others.
Limx Dynamics was founded more than two years ago. Its recent backers include Alibaba, according to PitchBook. The startup earlier this month announced that its humanoid could move items around a warehouse and autonomously redesign how to complete a task if the target moves.
Other companies at the World Robot Congress showcased a range of gears, robot arms and other components.
Around the year 2030, a single robot will likely be able to perform simple household tasks, nursing care and medical care, partly alone and partly in cooperation with humans, Shigeki Sugano, president of the Robotics Society of Japan, said Thursday. conference forum.
This includes the ability to express emotions, he said. He doesn’t expect fully autonomous hominids until after 2050.
Among the development challenges, he said that if a humanoid robot is to fully support humans, then it will have to address the current problem of not having enough power.
A humanoid’s battery can only last two hours before needing to be recharged.
