Ryan Gosling stars in Universal’s The Fall Guy.
Worldwide
For the first time since 2009, the box office is without a Marvel movie to kick off the summer movie season — and it shows.
Since the release of “Iron Man” in 2008, Marvel Cinematic Universe movies have had solid starts during this highly lucrative movie season, with only two films opening under $100 million — not including pandemic years.
This year, the first movie for the first summer weekend was by Universal “The Autumn Guy.” And despite strong marketing efforts and solid reviews, the film failed to increase ticket sales during its opening weekend last weekend. The film grossed less than $28 million in its domestic debut.
“‘The Fall Guy’ had quality co-stars in Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt, but the lack of a well-known franchise and a niche story made it too narrow to attract a summer-like mass audience,” said Eric Handler, managing director at Roth MKM, wrote in a note to investors on Monday.
That stumble doesn’t bode well for the summer box office, which was already poised to slip from last year’s $4.1 billion after double strikes by Hollywood workers halted production and blocked the pipeline of new films.
The result could drop 2024’s summer box office by as much as $800 million compared to 2023, according to Comscore’s Paul Dergarabedian, and have ripple effects for the entire year. After all, the core summer season, which runs from the first weekend in May to Labor Day, typically accounts for 40% of total annual domestic ticketing.
A limited and erratic flow of new films means that moviegoers have not been exposed to movie trailers and promotional posters in their local cinemas and may not be aware of the features leading up to the big screen. Additionally, this summer’s movie slate isn’t as strong as previous years, with fewer blockbusters and big franchise films.
There’s only one superhero movie slated for the summer — “Deadpool and Wolverine,” Disney’s first R-rated Marvel movie — and it doesn’t arrive until late July.
For now, analysts believe the summer movie season will top $3 billion in ticket sales, but just barely. Before Covid, the summer box office consistently topped more than $4 billion. The last time ticket sales topped $3 billion during that season was 2000, according to Comscore data.
“Even with the inevitable decline in year-over-year revenue, the summer of ’24 should be judged more by the quality and value of the moviegoing experience than by the amount of box office cash in the drawer,” Dergarabedian said.
An innocent summer
So far this quarter, the box office is down 48 percent year over year, Handler noted. While he expects the May slate to help boost ticket sales, the box office “will need to see some big splashes” to “reclaim some lost ground.”
“Right now, cinema operators need a major infusion of content,” Handler wrote. “Not only is the volume of content down in Q2, but the sizzle is missing.”
The biggest summer movie releases
May 9 – “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes”
May 17 — “IF”
May 17 — “The Strangers: Chapter 1”
May 24 — “Furiosa: A Mad Max Story”
May 24 — “The Garfield Movie”
June 7 – “Bad Boys: Ride or Die”
June 14 — “Inside Out 2”
June 21 — “The Bikeriders”
June 28 — “A Quiet Place: Day One”
July 3 — “Despicable Me 4”
July 19 – “Twisters”
July 26 – “Deadpool and Wolverine”
August 9 – “Borderlands”
August 16 – “Alien: Romulus”
August 23 – “The Crow”
For the rest of May, Disney’s “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” is currently on track for a domestic opening weekend between $55 million and $60 million. Paramount’s “IF” is estimated at around $40 million. And Warner Bros.’ “Furiosa” is expected to reach $40 million to $50 million.
However, these forecasts pale in comparison to big releases in the same month last year. Universal’s “Fast X” took in $67 million during its opening, and Disney’s live-action “The Little Mermaid” opened to $96 million.
It remains to be seen if this summer will see hits like Angel’s “Sound of Freedom” last year that could boost the overall box office.
Strong finish
What Summer 2024 does is more family-friendly fare. A series of cartoons from established franchises should appeal to parents and children during the summer holidays and free time from school.
Universal’s “Kung Fu Panda 4” is currently the second-highest-grossing film domestically for 2024, with $188.4 million in ticket sales. “Dune: Part Two” by Warner Bros. and Legendary Entertainment’s biggest domestic release so far this year with $281.3 million.
And some heavy hitting comes during the latter part of the year.
“Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” is coming in early September, “Joker: Folie a Deux” will be released in October along with “Venom: The Last Dance” and in November “Gladiator II”, “Moana 2” and “Wicked”. Additionally, December will have ‘Kraven the Hunter’, ‘Sonic the Hedgehog 3’ and ‘Mufasa: The Lion King’.
Notably, the first “Joker” grossed $335 million domestically in 2019. Both “Venom” films brought in $213 million each. 2016’s “Moana” earned $248.7 million, and the two previous “Sonic” movies earned $146 million and $190 million during their theatrical runs.
“Ultimately the race is won at the multiplex and not on a spreadsheet,” Dergarabedian said.
Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC.