The number of people facing possible starvation in the Gaza Strip in the coming weeks is the largest share of the population at risk of famine identified since a panel linked to the United Nations created the current global food insecurity assessment 20 years ago.
After Hamas’ surprise attack on Israel on October 7, Israel responded with air and ground attacks and sealing off the ground, leaving the 2.2 million people living there without adequate food, water and supplies. The UN has concluded that without significant intervention, Gaza could reach famine levels by early February.
Limited amounts of food and other aid enter Gaza from Israel and Egypt at border points with strict controls. Ongoing bombing and ground fighting make the distribution of this aid extremely difficult.
Famine scholars say it has been generations since the world has seen this degree of food deprivation in war.
“The severity, scale and speed of the destruction of structures necessary for survival and enforcement of the siege surpasses any other case of man-made famine in the last 75 years,” said Alex de Waal, an expert on humanitarian crises and international law. at Tufts University who wrote “Mass Hunger: The History and Future of Famine.”
The situation in Gaza is the latest in a series of recent crises that have reversed progress against famine. Mass starvation deaths declined steadily from the 1980s into the 21st century. But over the past seven years, conflict-related food crises (such as those in Yemen, Syria and the Tigray region of Ethiopia) and those stemming from environmental conditions and climate change (such as in Somalia) have resulted in the loss of more than a million lives.
Gaza is unique, experts say, because the people who live there are sealed into the area without resorting to foraging elsewhere.
Israel has strongly denied claims that it is responsible for the food shortage in Gaza.
“There is sufficient food in Gaza,” said Col. Elad Goren, head of Israel’s agency that oversees policy on the Palestinian territories, known as COGAT, in a recent news briefing.
“Israel has not and will not stand in the way of humanitarian aid to the people of Gaza that is not part of the terror,” he continued. “We have not refused a single shipment of food, water, medical supplies or shelter equipment.”
If Gazans do not have access to food, Col. Goren said, it is because of the failures of humanitarian organizations.
“Organizations desperately need to increase their capacity to receive and distribute aid,” he said. “This includes better work processes, more facilities and trucks. There is also a need for additional human resources.”
The World Food Program reported that before the war, about 500 trucks a day carried supplies, including food, to Gaza, which has been under a partial blockade by Israel and Egypt since Hamas took control there in 2007. Last year week, the organization said an average of 127 trucks were allowed through the main Israeli checkpoint each day. Distributing this limited aid is nearly impossible because of destroyed communications, fuel shortages and ongoing Israeli bombardment, the World Food Program and others say.
“Our staff don’t feel safe distributing and people don’t feel safe going to the distributions,” said Shaza Moghraby, a spokeswoman for the program. “They are queuing for food praying they won’t be bombed.”
The few entry points operate intermittently because of shelling, Ms. Moghrabi said, and the Israeli military’s inspection and bureaucratic process means that only a limited number of aid deliveries clear each day.
“The need is exponentially greater now because people rely solely on humanitarian aid for their very survival,” said Juliette Touma, a spokeswoman for UNRWA, the agency that supports Gaza.
The assessment of the risk of starvation in Gaza was made by 30 experts from 19 agencies, convened by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. The initiative, the Integrated Food Safety Phase Classificationmonitors food access in about 50 places around the world at a time.
In crisis zones, it monitors three criteria: whether 30 percent of children are severely malnourished or wasted; if the death rate exceeds twice the normal level; or if 20 percent of the population is “catastrophically” short of food. If any of these thresholds are exceeded, the committee convenes a so-called Famine Review Committee to determine the likelihood of famine.
Because the “F word” is so controversial, said Cormac Ó Gráda, a famine historian and professor at University College Dublin, the hope is that declaring a famine will trigger significant intervention — and that even a declaration of imminent famine can promote the action.
“If a famine happens, someone is to blame — and if you can get an international organization, which is considered scientific and objective, to admit that there is a famine, then it is very, very serious for the people who appear to have caused the famine,” said professor Ó Gráda. “So the Israelis certainly wouldn’t want the UN or someone like the UN to declare that there is a famine in Gaza.”
Starvation of civilians was a military tactic in World War II, when more than three million Soviets were killed during the Nazi “Hunger Plan” and when the US Navy and Air Force conducted a campaign officially called Operation Starvation, which blocked food delivery to Japan. From 1958 to 1961, at least 25 million people died in the Great Leap Forward-related famine in China.
Famines in Nigeria during the civil war in the late 1960s; in Sarajevo during the Bosnian war in the early 1990s; in the Syrian civil war that began 13 years ago. and in Ethiopia from 2020 are comparable to Gaza as sieges of civilians during the conflicts, Professor de Waal said.
He and other experts argued that regardless of the reasons cited, the underlying cause reflected deliberate choices by those in power.
“Hunger is usually caused by people, by decisions of political elites,” said Rhoda E. Howard-Hassmann, an international human rights scholar and author of “State Food Crimes.” The reports from Gaza suggest a deliberate decision in Israel to cut back on food, he said.
“It’s a political decision or a military decision,” he said, but added, “I am prepared to accept that there are probably other factors involved, such as Hamas corruption, diversion of food by Hamas and so on.”
While famine crises in regions such as South Sudan and Tigray have unfolded with little media attention, there is intense international scrutiny in Gaza. Statements made early in the war by members of the Israeli government about an intention to deprive the entire population of Gaza of food have drawn the attention of human rights prosecutors.
Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel’s Minister of National Security, said in a post on X on October 17, “Until Hamas releases the hostages in its hands, the only thing it needs to get into Gaza is hundreds of tons of explosives from the Air Force, not an ounce of humanitarian aid.”
The debate over the current situation in Gaza – whether it is the result of a deliberate strategy to target civilians or an unintended and unavoidable consequence of Israel’s attack on Hamas – shows why it is difficult to address through international law.
The prohibition of starvation of civilians as a method of warfare was introduced into international law in 1977, with an additional protocol to the Geneva Convention.
In 1998, the Rome Statute created the International Criminal Court and made it a war crime to starve civilians as a military tactic in international conflicts. The crime is described as an intent to deprive the civilian population of food, as well as water, medicine and shelter. The United States and Israel were two of the seven countries that voted against the creation of the court.
There have been no prosecutions at the international famine court because most of the man-made famines since then have taken place within national borders.
In 2018, the United Nations Security Council unanimously approved Resolution 2417which condemned the use of starvation in conflict and said cases in which armed conflict threatened to create widespread food insecurity should be “swiftly” referred to the Security Council.
Yet the Security Council has yet to address man-made famines: Allies of the countries accused of causing them have consistently acted to prevent the issue from discussion. The United States repeatedly criticized the Syrian government to the Security Council for the use of starvation, but it was necessary a softer tone when its allies Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates blockaded Yemen, causing widespread famine.
Experts say it is difficult to apply international justice to famines because they are often caused by blockades in conflict, when the excluded party can claim to stop food from reaching a rebel or terrorist group. Since the 9/11 attacks, the idea that the need to act against terrorists takes precedence over protecting civilians has often dominated international relations, Professor de Waal said.
Catriona Murdoch, a legal expert on hunger with the advocacy group Global Rights Compliance, said the question of whether there is a deliberate intent to deprive a civilian population of food and other “items necessary for survival” described in the UN resolution. The food crisis is a potential crime against humanity. Starvation need not occur for an offense to be prosecuted, he said, if intent is proven.
International justice organizations can gather evidence from Gaza now for consideration in a possible prosecution later, when international institutions are more functional.
“These types of investigations take years and years to come to fruition,” Ms Murdoch said.
Adam Sella contributed reporting from Tel Aviv.