Fresh off victories in their respective primaries, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are set to face off in what will likely be a bruising, no-holds-barred race to the finish line in November. Funny, but Wall Street doesn’t seem to care. Not yet, anyway. The campaign, despite the potential for a contest between two polarizing candidates, has received little attention from the investment community. The major stock market averages have posted solid gains this year as the focus has been more on what the Federal Reserve is planning than on who will occupy the White House in 2025. That indifference is likely due to a few key factors: An economy that looks fairly stable , the prospects for continued policy accommodation regardless of who wins — and the reality that with political divisions so stark in the US, no president will be free to enact an aggressive agenda that will fundamentally change the status quo. Both Trump and Biden clinched their respective Democratic and Republican nominations with primary victories on Tuesday. “Gridlock is good,” said Doug Roberts, founder and chief investment strategist at Channel Capital Research. “Either way, margins [of congressional control] they’re going to be so thin that they won’t be able to do much, no matter what they promise.” A Profits Story This potential deadlock has fueled the outlook for the status quo of steady economic growth, a stable labor market and inflation moving lower . Those conditions have pushed the S&P 500, the broadest index of market performance for major companies, to a gain of more than 8% already this year. By historical comparison, presidential election years through 1952 have averaged gains of just 7% for full year, although elections with an incumbent averaged 12.2%, according to LPL Financial. “The economy appears to be pretty strong. The election isn’t going to change that much either way.” , Roberts said. “They may affect individual sectors based on the legislation they’re talking about. Basically, you’re not going to see much happen. The market likes deadlock because then there’s not going to be a lot of redistribution of wealth with one or the other way, despite what everyone says.” Market movements during the year, however, could be significant as they have often predicted outcomes in presidential races. Politically, Biden and Trump offer several differences. Where the incumbent has pushed for green energy and electric cars, Trump has espoused the “hole, baby, hole” philosophy of continuing to harvest fossil fuels. Biden supports taxing the wealthy while Trump promoted corporate tax cuts while in office. On business, Trump favors less regulation while Biden pushed for more. Even with these contrasts, the practical impact was not as pronounced. For example, Biden kept many of Trump’s controversial tariffs on imported goods in place, and both used deficit spending to fund their agendas. bigger stick than anyone in Washington these days in terms of market impact. While the market has shown virtually no reaction to any of the fireworks between Biden and Trump, it can swing wildly on even a gentle shake from the Fed. But as the market adjusts to expectations for a patient and somewhat hawkish central bank for the rest of the year, policy spin could be more prominent. “As the buzz builds around the US election, we will see people shift their focus as things gain momentum,” said Joe Salmond, portfolio manager at Thornburg Investment Management. “There is still danger [with the Fed], but decreases as time goes on. In general, things are set. That will reduce people’s attention.” As for the things that could bring the election more into play, they include the potential for more trouble in the Middle East and Russia, with oil disruptions causing higher energy costs. There is also a the possibility that inflation will be stickier than expected and keep interest rates higher for longer, and the possibility of a government shutdown that will make party lines important. Whoever wins will also have the critical job of appointing a presidency Fed, after current Jerome Powell’s term expires earlier in 2026. Investors should start thinking about how various outcomes could affect choices, he added. What does this mean for how things are affected both internationally and and within the US,” he said. “There’s a lot of talk about the support we’re going to give to other countries and how much of what we’re doing will flow back home or whether the pre-existing relationships we’ve had will continue.” In a sense, the markets will get their own vote as the election approaches. In 20 of the last 24 elections, according to LPL, when stocks are up three months before Election Day, the incumbent wins. A market decline, on the other hand, usually signals a victory for the challenger. The trend makes market movements in the coming months potentially important in determining the winner of the election.