Protesters take part in an anti-far-right rally after the results of the first round of French parliamentary elections were announced at Place de la Republique in Paris on June 30, 2024.
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“We’re scared of what might happen,” Amel, 34, told CNBC ahead of the final round of voting in France’s snap election this weekend.
The vote is being closely watched by all parts of French society to see if the nationalist, anti-immigration National Rally (RN) builds on its initial victory in the first round of voting, or if centrist and left-wing parties manage to block the party’s chances of entering to the government.
“It’s a very, very tense moment. And it is the first time that the extreme right wins in the first turn [the first round of the ballot]. So it’s a very big deal,” added Amel, a therapist who said she would vote for the left-wing New People’s Front.
“We’re very concerned and trying to get everyone to vote, trying to tell people who don’t vote to go vote and try to convince people who vote far right that it’s not a good answer. [to France’s problems].”
France’s far-right RN rejects the “extremist” label, saying it is defending French values, culture and citizens at a time when many are fed up with the French political establishment led by President Emmanuel Macron since 2017.
But opponents and critics of the RN warn that France is on the brink of political disaster if an openly anti-immigrant, nationalist and Eurosceptic party wins a majority in these snap elections called by Macron after his party’s heavy defeat against hard-fought right wing in the European Parliament elections. in June. Prime Minister Gabriel Atal said French voters now had a “moral duty” to stop the party’s progress.
For young, left-wing voters like Amel, the RN’s rise in the polls and the fact that it won the most votes in the first round of elections last weekend are worrying developments that make them fear for France’s social cohesion.
“I’m worried about the future of the country. I think it’s getting worse and worse,” said Amel, who preferred to give only her first name because of the sensitive nature of the situation. “It’s going to be like a kind of civil war. I hope it doesn’t come to that, but people just won’t mix anymore and be afraid of each other. And that’s very scary.”
The snap election threw the country’s political polarization into sharp relief as opinion polls ahead of the final round of voting on Sunday suggest a deeply divided nation.
The first round of elections resulted in the far-right RN winning 33% of the vote, with the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) garnering 28% and the coalition of pro-Macron parties (Ensemble, or Together) winning the 20% of the votes. vote.
Left-wing supporters react as the results of the first round of French parliamentary elections are announced in Nantes, western France, on June 30, 2024.
Sebastien Salom-gomis | Afp | Getty Images
Since the results of the first ballot, parties of the center right and left have done everything to prevent the RN from progressing to the second ballot, aiming to prevent a parliamentary majority for the party at all costs. Joining forces in a so-called “Republican Front”, centrist and left-wing parties have withdrawn candidates in many constituencies where one of their candidates was better placed to beat the RN.
By offering voters a starker choice and fewer options, the anti-far-right front hopes the electorate will vote for the non-RN candidate. Whether it will work remains to be seen, and analysts point out that French voters may not take kindly to being told how to vote or who to vote for.
Elections are a “trouble”
The final result on Sunday afternoon – the result of snap elections that Macron did not have to call – will show how difficult it will be to find a consensus in national politics and government going forward.
How the nation will react to the result is also uncertain. France is no stranger to civil unrest given the widespread anti-government “Yellow Vest” movement in recent years and street protests since the first round of voting on June 30.
France’s interior ministry appears to be bracing itself for more trouble after Sunday’s vote. They are reportedly set to deploy around 30,000 officers across France on Sunday night amid fears of violence after polls close. Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin was quoted as saying that 5,000 police officers would be on duty in Paris and surrounding areas to “ensure that the radical right and radical left do not take advantage of the situation to cause chaos”.
France’s police have at times been accused of being heavy-handed with protesters in previous periods of unrest. firing water cannons and tear gas at “yellow vest” protesters in 2019.
Tensions rise as protesters gather at the Place de la Republique to protest against the rising right-wing movement after the Rassemblement National won the first round of early general elections in Paris, France on June 30, 2024.
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A member of the gendarmerie, the French military force responsible for law enforcement and public order, told CNBC that “the French election is a mess” and that “the public divide has rarely been so glaring in France.”
“People’s opinions are increasingly divided, and it’s being felt in everyday life,” the constable, who asked to remain anonymous because of the nature of his work, told CNBC.
The officer – a father of three who is in his 40s and a right-wing voter – said the polarization in French society was “very worrying, but unfortunately normal with the ‘diversity’ of our society”.
“More and more people with different values and educations are being forced to co-exist and this is clearly not working,” said the officer, who works in Bordeaux in south-west France.
“I worry about the future of the country, because we are too generous with people who are not willing to integrate and contribute to our society, this cannot last.”
The police officer said he expected civil unrest after the vote, whichever party won the most votes.
“There will be civil unrest whoever is elected, this is France and the people have their say.”
Possible civil unrest
Political experts agree that the current heated atmosphere of French politics and competition between the main bodies of voters are the ingredients for further civil unrest.
“You have here the whole recipe for a hyper-polarized political scene, and that, of course, translates into civil society as a whole,” Philippe Marlière, professor of French and European politics at University College London, told CNBC.
“If you only have 33-34% of people voting for the far right, it means that the rest are wary of it or completely opposed to it, so that will translate to every level of politics — institutional politics, party politics, in the National Assembly, but also in society you will have a very polarized society in which younger people, ethnic minorities, women, and especially feminists, would be very concerned,” he said.
Marlier did not rule out the possibility of violence in the streets if a far-right party was elected to government. “We’re not there yet. But if there are policies that are very unpopular, very competitive and very hostile to certain groups, there will be protests on a scale that you will have unrest in the street,” he said.
Unknown entity
Like other far-right parties in Europe, the National Coalition has tapped into voter insecurities about crime, immigration, national identity and economic insecurity. 28-year-old RN leader Jordan Bardella has told voters he would “restore order”, curb immigration and tackle crime but he and party leader Marine Le Pen have backed away from some of their harsher promises and rhetoric, backing down on France’s exit from NATO, for example, and softening the party’s traditionally pro-Russian stance.
Bardella said he would still support sending weapons to Ukraine, but not the deployment of ground troops, as Macron said was a possibility.
Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella at the final rally before the June 9 European Parliament elections held at Le Dôme de Paris – Palais des Sports on June 2, 2024.
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It is uncertain how many of the National Rally’s policies will be implemented even if the party enters government. The Republican Front also appears confident ahead of the second round of voting that its strategy to damage the RN’s vote share is working.
Poll published by Ifop They suggested on July 3 that voters should lean towards a centrist pro-Macron or leftist candidate instead of the RN candidate if that is the option presented to them on the ballot on Sunday. If the choice was between a far-left and far-right candidate, however, the picture was more nuanced, showing a vote split.
Analysts predict the RN is less likely to be able to achieve an outright majority of 289 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, but is still likely to garner the most votes, creating a hung parliament scenario and headache for Macron and uncertainty for French politics and economic prospects.
“The political landscape is in turmoil and it can’t work anymore, at least not under the old rules,” Ipsos analyst Mathieu Doiret told CNBC on Thursday.
“We are in a situation so far removed from our traditions and political habit that it is very difficult for everyone concerned to adapt to this new situation.”
