US Vice President Kamala Harris holds a campaign event that is her seventh visit to North Carolina this year and 15th trip to the state since taking office in Fayetteville NC, United States on July 18, 2024.
Peter Zay | Anadolu | Getty Images
President Joe Biden’s endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee for president has set the stage for a much tighter and more uncertain race in November, some experts say.
Biden dropped out of the race on Sunday as top Democrats pressured him to drop out after a disastrous debate performance and as Republican candidate Donald Trump was leading in the polls.
Democrats were headed for a “crushing defeat” in November, but now, they have a chance, said Ian Bremmer, founder and president of the Eurasia Group.
“They’re back [this race] and President Biden gave the Democrats a fighting chance,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Monday.
Harris is now on an upward path to the Democratic nomination, though she will need to win a majority of delegates before the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August.
While some other candidates may throw their hat in the race, “it’s very clear that Kamala Harris is the overwhelming favorite to be the nominee,” Bremmer said.
If Harris wins the nomination, she would offer Democrats a “total reset,” Steven Okun, a senior consultant at McLarty Associates, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia.”
“If Democrats can come together, come out of this convention, speaking with one voice, empowered, excited, then they have a good chance to win in November,” he said.
Allan Lichtman, a presidential historian who has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1984, told CNBC’s “Capital Connection” that Harris would be in a “strong position to win the upcoming election” in a race against Trump.
He will wait until the Democratic convention to make his official prediction.
Harris said in a post on social media platform X that she wanted to work to “win and win“the nomination while uniting Democrats.
How Harris is helping Democrats
According to experts who spoke to CNBC, Harris has a number of advantages compared to her former candidate.
While Republicans have gained ground on the economy, inflation and immigration fronts, abortion is a major issue where she will have an edge, Okun said. Harris has been outspoken about reproductive issues as the first female vice president.
“The fact is that Biden and Trump are too old to run and serve another four years, and that is now the top vulnerability for Trump,” Bremer said from Eurasia.
ONE recent poll showed that about 85% of the population thought Biden was too old to serve another four years. The same poll found that 60% of Americans thought Trump was too old.
“You see a lot of excitement for Harris, a younger, livelier, more energetic former prosecutor who certainly could do extremely well on the debate stage,” Bremer added.
Bremer pointed out that Harris also has some weaknesses. “She’s not very likeable as a retail politician… That was a weak point for her.” There are also some risks associated with running as a woman – the daughter of an Indian mother and a Jamaican father – in today’s America, she added.
On the other hand, he may be better positioned than Biden to woo some key demographics, including “women, young and black voters,” Charles Myers, founder and CEO of Signum Global, told Squawk Box Asia ».
“It’s a whole new race. There’s a new candidate with tremendous unity and enthusiasm behind her,” he said.
Greater market uncertainty
The purchases were more and more pricing in a Trump victory, with his presidency expected to bring tax cuts and a stronger tariff policy.
But according to Myers, the race has been thrown into “complete disarray” with Harris poised to give Trump “a real run for his money.”
“I would be very cautious and a little cautious to assume that Trump is just going to cruise to victory,” Myers said, adding that names and asset classes associated with a Trump victory could be considered short-term risk.
Trump said Harris would he is easier to beat compared to biden.
According to the Democratic convention, Harris would have been the vice-presidential pick and likely completed the nomination, so the momentum could see her leading in the polls, Myers said.
According to Okun, two potential candidates to run for Harris are Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona, as they come from key swing states and are considered more moderate.
If Democrats can’t unify factions within the party, such as moderates and progressives, they will lose to a Republican Party fully united around Trump, he added.
— CNBC’s Sonia Heng contributed to this report.
Correction: Steven Okun, senior consultant at McLarty Associates, appeared on CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia.” An earlier version misstated the name of the program.
