Construction of a KB Home single-family home development is seen in Menifee, California, on September 4, 2024.
Mike Blake | Reuters
Both running for president they promise to build more houses. Someone promises to deport hundreds of thousands of people who make them.
of former President Donald Trump promise “Starting the largest deportation operation in our nation’s history” would cripple construction companies already facing labor shortages and push record home prices higher, industry leaders, contractors and economists say.
“It would be detrimental to the construction industry and our labor supply and would exacerbate housing affordability problems,” said Jim Tobin, CEO of the National Association of Home Builders. The trade group sees foreign-born workers, regardless of legal status, as a “vital and flexible source of labor” for builders, noting that cover 30% of trade jobs such as carpentry, plastering, masonry and electrical roles.
I either make half the money or raise my prices. And who ultimately pays for it? The owner of the house.
Brent Taylor
President of Taylor Construction Group, Tampa, Fla.
Almost 11 million undocumented immigrants were living in the U.S. by 2022, the latest federal data show, down from a peak of 11.8 million, according to data provided by the Pew Research Center to NBC News. Industry experts say rates are higher in Sun Belt states like Florida and Texas, and more pronounced in residential than commercial construction.
For Brent Taylor, building has been “a very, very difficult industry in recent years and it seems to be getting worse”. His five-person business, based in Tampa, hires subcontractors to do all the work, and if employees of those companies “show up at my workplace because they work for this company, I don’t know if they’re legit or not.” he said.
The labor force is already tight, with the US manufacturing industry still is looking to fill 370,000 open positionsaccording to federal data. If crews dwindle further, “now I can only do 10 jobs a year instead of 20,” Taylor said. “Either I make half the money or I raise my prices. And who ultimately pays for that? The homeowner.”
Rhetoric or reality?
Trump did not specify how his proposed “whole of government” effort. to remove up to 20 million people — far more than the undocumented population — would work, but has made it the focus of his housing. But the Republican candidate claims mass deportations would free up homes for US citizens and lower prices few economists agree. The idea has also drawn skepticism on logistical grounds, with some analysts saying its cost would be “astronomical”.
There are also doubts among builders that Trump would follow through on his promise.
“They don’t think it’s going to happen,” Stan Marek, CEO of the Marek Family of Companies, a Texas-based specialty subcontracting firm, said of his colleagues in the industry. “You’d lose so many people you couldn’t get a crew together to frame a house.”
You’ll lose so many people you couldn’t muster a crew to frame a house.
Stan Marek
CEO of the Marek family of companies
Bryan Dunn, an Arizona-based senior vice president at Big-D Construction, a major Southwest company, called it “almost ridiculous the idea that they could actually move that many people” out of the country. The proposal left those working in the industry “trying to figure out how politically fear-inducing it is,” he said.
But while Trump has a history of floating outlandish ideas without seriously pursuing them — like buying Greenland — has embraced other once radical policies that restoring the terms of the political debate despite fierce criticism and litigation. This is especially true for immigration, where its administration diversion of Pentagon money to build a border wall, banned travel from many Muslim-majority countries and separated children of immigrants from their parents.
Trump has underscored his dismissal on the stump, at times deploying racist rhetoric such as they claim that thousands of immigrants are committing murder because “it’s in their genes”. This month he accused immigrant gangs of “invading and taking over” cities such as Aurora, Colorado, which local authorities refusesaying they need federal help but he wants no part in mass deportations. Yet, recent poll has found widespread support for removing people who came to the US illegally.
“President Trump’s mass deportation of illegal immigrants will not only make our communities safer, but will save Americans from footing the bill for years to come,” said Taylor Rogers, Republican National Committee spokesman on the campaign trail. , in a statement, referring to undocumented people. use of taxpayer-funded social services and other federal programs.
Trump campaign spokeswoman Caroline Levitt said in a statement that the former president’s comments about genetics “clearly refer to murderers, not immigrants.”
Tobin said the NAHB has real concerns about the deportation proposal, but is involved in both campaigns. The has called policy makers to “Let the builders build” by relaxing zoning and other regulatory barriers and improving developers’ access to finance.
We need to have a serious conversation in this country about immigration policy and reform, and we can’t put it off any longer.
Jim Tobin
CEO of the National Association of Home Builders
“The rhetoric on immigration, it’s at 11,” Tobin said. “We need to have a serious conversation in this country about immigration policy and reform, and we can’t delay it any longer.”
Marek, who has long advocated For more ways for undocumented people to legally work in construction, he said reforms are decades overdue. As an employer, “I do everything I can to make sure everyone is legal,” he said, even as the industry’s hunger for low-cost labor has created an underground economy which he says is often taken advantage of on undocumented workers depends.
“We need them. They build our homes — 30 years,” he said. “Losing workers will destroy our companies, our industry and our economy.”
“The math isn’t there”
There are signs that foreign construction workers are helping to keep the housing market under control. A analysis released in December 2022 from the George W. Bush Institute and Southern Methodist University found that US metro areas with the fastest growing immigrant populations had the lowest construction costs.
“Migrant construction workers in Sun Belt metros such as Raleigh, Nashville, Houston, and San Antonio have helped these cities maintain their housing cost advantage over coastal cities despite rapid growth in housing demand,” the authors wrote.
But the builders need a lot more workers as it is. “The math isn’t there” for them to take a hit from mass layoffs, said Ron Hetrick, senior labor economist at labor analysis firm Lightcast. “That would be incredibly disruptive” and cause “a very, very significant blow to housing construction,” he said.
Private employers in the sector have added jobs over the past decade, with Employment levels now exceed 8 millionmore than 1 million more since the pandemic, according to payroll processor ADP. But as Hetrick noted, “the average high school student doesn’t aspire to do this job,” and the existing workforce is aging — the average builder is 57 years old.
Undocumented workers will likely leave before any national deportation effort, Hetrick said, even though many have been in the U.S. for more than a decade. He expects such a policy to also trigger an exodus of legally authorized people.
“That’s exactly what happened in Florida,” he said.
Past as prologue
Last year, the state’s Republican governor, Ron DeSantis, voted a row restrictions and penalties to prevent the employment of undocumented workers. Many migrant workers hurriedly left the state even before the policies went into effect, with videos on social media showing some construction sites sit empty.
“These laws show they have no idea what we’re doing,” said Luciano, a carpenter originally from Mexico who has worked on residential buildings in South Florida for the past decade.
“Nobody else would work under the conditions we’re working in,” the 40-year-old said in Spanish, asking to be identified by his first name because he does not have legal immigration status despite living in the US for more than 20 years. Workers on construction sites “have time in but no time out,” often logging 70-hour weeks in rain and extreme heat, he said.
Taylor recalled the panic of fellow Florida builders at the time of the statewide crackdown, but said he reassured them: “Look, just give it six months. We don’t have enough people to enforce it, so they come back.”
Republican state Rep. Rick Roth, who voted for the measure, later admitted that Florida was unprepared for the destabilization it would cause and urged the immigrant residents not to leave, saying that the law “isn’t as bad as you’ve heard.”
Some workers returned after realizing the policies weren’t being strictly enforced, Taylor said: “Definitely, things are more normal now.”
DeSantis’ office did not respond to a request for comment.
When Arizona in 2010 enacted what were then some of the toughest immigration restrictions in the country, Dunn was working in Tempe as an executive at a construction management company. As the legislation rolled out, he said, “a lot of people moved away and just never came back.”
By the time much of the law was overturned in 2012, he said, “Arizona had a bad rap” compared to other states that were “much more open and just less of a hassle to go to work.”
Dunn, a Democrat, said he “definitely” supports Vice President Kamala Harris, but other construction officials sounded more divided. Marek, a “lifelong Republican,” declined to share how he votes, but noted that “a lot of Republicans don’t vote for Trump.”
Taylor also did not say which candidate he was supporting, but praised Trump’s ability to “get things done.”
“There are many other issues with the economy that we struggle with every day that have nothing to do with immigration reform,” he said. “I am not a voter of a policy.”