How corporate America handles sticky inflation and the prospect of higher interest rates will be on investors’ minds next week, after this week’s choppy moves. The bull market is over. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S & P 500 posted their second straight weekly loss after a hotter-than-expected consumer price index report in March weighed on the interest rate outlook for investors. Markets are now pricing in two rate cuts starting in September, the CME FedWatch Tool shows, instead of the three rate cuts starting in June that investors were banking on before the CPI report. There are also many warning signs. Bond yields are rising, with the benchmark 10-year yield back above 4.5%. Oil prices are on the rise, with Exxon Mobil hitting an all-time high amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. The gold safe haven is on the rise, with consumers heading to their local Costco stores to buy gold bars. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), commonly referred to as a fear gauge, has returned to levels last seen in October 2023. However, some tech sectors are outperforming, with Apple closing the week up 4%. .VIX YTD mountain VIX Next week will bring more information that could add to the recent turmoil. The first-quarter earnings season, which began on Friday, will give Wall Street insight into how businesses expect to deal with a high interest rate environment. Elsewhere, more macro data, such as US retail sales, will give insight into how the consumer is handling the pressure of higher prices. “I’m a little concerned with all the cross currents,” Bob Doll, chief executive of Crossmark Global Investments, told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Friday. “When the [price-to-earnings ratios] it’s over 20, things better be close to perfect. And when you don’t get the rate cuts, you can’t sustain the PE, and then if earnings become a question mark, that’s going to cause a lot more people to ask questions,” Doll added. Certainly, many investors expect markets can absorb the possibility of fewer rate cuts this year unless the Federal Reserve takes a suddenly hawkish view and decides to put rate hikes back on the table Expectations for rate cuts underway Corporate earnings season kicks into high gear next week. as well as the upcoming refinancing cycle “Earnings, this quarter, will be so telling,” said Wolfe’s Rob Ginsberg: “If they don’t show signs of deterioration, they’ll probably consolidate and activate, but if they start to show. some weakness, that’s when you worry about stagflation.” “This is not a good scenario for stocks,” he added. Ginsberg, who expects a 4% to 6% consolidation in stocks, said the pullback could be worse if fundamentals show signs of weakening. Investors generally expect larger companies with strong balance sheets to weather price pressure, but many worry that small-cap companies that may have more debt on their balance sheets could be hurt by rising interest rates. This week, the small-cap Russell 2000 is on track for a losing week, down more than 1%. Next week’s results from major banks Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley will likely take on more importance for investors given JPMorgan’s disappointing net interest income guidance this week. Results from a succession of regional banks, which may have higher loan stocks and greater exposure to real estate, will also attract scrutiny. Dow component UnitedHealth will also report results next week. Overall, analysts expect S&P 500 companies to have increased earnings by more than 3% from the prior period, according to FactSet data. If that’s the case, it would mark the third straight quarter of earnings growth for the benchmark. Focus on the consumer Next week will also bring a slew of economic data that could provide insight into how the consumer is holding up — after a warmer-than-expected March CPI and signs of weakening consumer sentiment. US retail sales data due on Monday are expected to show a slowdown from last month. Economists polled by FactSet expected a 0.4 percent rise last month, compared with a 0.6 percent gain in the previous reading. “[Consumer health] it’s a big thing for us. It’s something that we think looks fine, but if we see a change in employment trends or if we see the consumer falling behind because their weighted average cost of debt really starts to reduce their spending, that could have broader implications, think, for the market,” said Robert Haworth, senior investment strategist at US Bank. “And so, we remain overly concentrated there.” Elsewhere, Haworth said he would review first-quarter growth data from China to gain insight into the situation of global output, as forecast, will add credibility to higher interest rates from the Fed ET Monday, April 15 8:30 AM Empire State Index (April) 8:30 AM & T Bank Tuesday, April 16 8:30 AM a.m. Preliminary Building Permits (March) 8:30 a.m. Occupancy (March) 9:15 a.m. Profits: JB Hunt , United Airlines , Morgan Stanley , Johnson & Johnson , Bank of America , Bank of New York Mellon , UnitedHealth Group , Northern Trust Wednesday, April 17 2 p.m. Fed Beige Book Earnings: Las Vegas Sands , CSX , Discover Financial Services , Prologis , US Bancorp , Citizens Financial Group Thursday, April 18 8:30 AM Continuing Jobless Claims (04/06) 8:30 AM Initial Claims (04/13) 8:30am Philadelphia Fed In ) 10 A.M. Existing Home Sales (March) 10am Top Indexes (March) Earnings: Blackstone , DR Horton , KeyCorp Friday, April 19 Earnings: American Express , Procter & Gamble , Fifth Third Bancorp , Schlumberger NV